Peer-Reviewed Publications (7)

Securing EU Clean Technology Supply Chains: Learning Rates in Material Recycling and Strategic Stockpiling (2025)

Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard, Maximilian Oitzinger

Abstract
Examines how the EU can meet its 2030 domestic sourcing targets for solar PV modules. The study models learning rates for material recycling and finds that strategic stockpiling is crucial for meeting benchmarks in the late 2020s and early 2040s, complementing domestic remanufacturing.

Net-zero emissions in the energy-intensive industrial sector by 2040: Insights from a country with ambitious national renewable policies (2025)

Marcus Otti, Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard

Abstract
This study identifies the cost-optimal transition technologies and energy carrier choices for achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 in Austria’s energy-intensive industrial sectors: iron and steel, pulp and paper, and cement. It focuses on the impact of three national policies, such as the targeted decarbonization of the Austrian power and gas sectors, and the role of carbon capture Technologies. The results emphasize the importance of biomethane, electrification, and efficiency measures.

The EU’s CBAM trinity in LNG supply: Modeling global trade flows, supply risks and upstream emissions (2026)

Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard, Anna Creti, Anne Neumann

Abstract
This study presents a multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model that optimizes global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply by balancing costs, risks, and greenhouse gas emissions. A central innovation of the research is the endogenous integration of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) into global LNG trade flows. By establishing a novel link between exporters' supply risks and their upstream emissions, the framework explores how recycling CBAM revenues can effectively incentivize emission reductions at the source. Ultimately, this work delivers the first quantitative assessment of the CBAM's impact on the LNG sector, providing actionable policy insights for future energy and climate strategies.

Integrating material recycling and remanufacturing in energy system optimization modeling: A review and showcase (2024)

Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard

Abstract
This study reviews material recycling and remanufacturing (MRR) in energy system modeling and introduces its endogenous integration into optimization frameworks. By evaluating cost-optimal MRR capacities, the research showcases the future lifecycle and deployment of EU solar modules up to 2050 across two distinct scenarios. Ultimately, it analyzes the specific energy policies required to effectively drive and scale recycling-based solar module remanufacturing within the clean energy transition.

Strategic solar module stockpiling in the EU: A scenario-based analysis of costs and benefits beyond 2030 (2025)

Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard, Maximilian Oitzinger, Helen Anais Fischer, Stian Backe

Abstract
Analyzes the optimal levels of strategic solar module stockpiles in the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The study finds that stockpiling is cost-effective in specific scenarios, particularly under unfavorable import conditions, and can reduce import dependency by introducing temporal flexibility.

Diversifying EU's Solar PV Module Supply Chain: Multi-Objective Modeling of Economic and Geopolitical Dynamics (2025)

Helen Anais Fischer, Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard, Hans Auer

Abstract
The European Union is expanding solar photovoltaic capacity at a rapid pace. However, the supply of PV modules is highly concentrated: 95% of solar PV module imports come from China, raising concerns about supply dependence and energy security. The core objective of this work is to model a cost and geopolitical risk minimizing strategy to diversify the EU's solar PV module imports across multiple export countries. A scenariobased analysis examines the impact of geopolitical tensions, such as price dumping, trade embargoes, and policy measures. The results indicate that geopolitical risk can be reduced, however, with additional costs ranging from 0.03 USD/W and 0.14 USD/W depending on the extent to which geopolitical risk is accounted for in the objective function. Minimizing the EU's geopolitical risk in solar PV module supply requires a diversification strategy, including long-term supply contracts with Malaysia and Vietnam.

Impact of Grid Tariff Design and Prosumer Flexibility Investments on Peak Load Reduction – Participation in Multiple Renewable Energy Communities (2025)

Helen Anais Fischer, Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard, Hans Auer

Abstract
Examines how grid tariff design and prosumer flexibility investments affect peak load reduction when prosumers participate in multiple renewable energy communities. Available as an SSRN working paper.